An Oahu congregation: the number of people going to Mass is shrinking. (HCH file photo)
By Patrick Downes
Hawaii Catholic Herald
Fewer Hawaii Catholics are going to church. A lot fewer, according to the annual count of Mass-goers conducted by the diocese last October.
The chancellor’s office, which coordinates the count, tracked 107 parishes, missions and ethnic communities. Of them, 85 saw a drop in Mass attendance over the past three years, from 2015 to 2018.
The diocese recorded an average of 46,890 people in church each weekend last October. That’s 2,998 fewer than 2015’s count of 49,888, and 11,547 fewer than 2008’s total of 58,437. The difference over the past decade amounts to a nearly 20 percent drop.
The loss is even more significant considering that the U.S. Census Bureau recorded an 11 percent increase in Hawaii’s population from the years 2008 to 2018, from 1.28 million to 1.42 million. That’s 140,000 people. Catholics make up around 20 percent of the population in the United States, so that influx should have increased Hawaii’s Catholics by 28,000.
If 20 percent of Hawaii’s population — that’s 280,000 — is Catholic, the October count would indicate that more than 233,000 Island Catholics skip Sunday worship. That would seem to confirm the observation that, as a group, non-practicing Catholics make up Hawaii’s largest “religious denomination.”
The October count is the yearly tally of weekend Mass-goers conducted in every Catholic parish and mission church in Hawaii.
To get the October numbers, ushers count heads at the Saturday vigil and Sunday Masses on each weekend in October. Adults and children are counted separately and then added together for a total.
The final count is the average of all the weekends. The weekend Mass totals are combined and then divided by the number of weekends that October, usually four, occasionally five. The parish’s average number of Mass-goers per October weekend is the “October Mass count” submitted to the diocese for its records.
October is chosen because it is considered a neutral month, least affected by vacations and high-attendance feasts like Christmas and Easter. However, October has its own variables, like football season. It is also a slower month for tourist-oriented parishes.
All things considered, the “October count” is presumed to be the number of “active Catholics” in Hawaii.
But some conditions are in play that would affect the numbers.
Some ethnic Masses are celebrated once a month. The average over four weekends would only be a quarter of their total number.
Likewise, if there are Catholics who go to church every other week, or once a month, the actual number of persons attending Mass through the entire month of October would be larger than the average number seen in the pews on a single Sunday.
In addition to inconsistent Mass attendance, other conditions affecting the count include simple tallying errors, mistakes in calculating averages, and the occasional non-participation of some parishes.
In examining the October counts over the past years, the Hawaii Catholic Herald found that these minor discrepancies were not uncommon.
According to the 2018 count, the Hawaii parish with the largest attendance by far is St. Joseph, Waipahu, with 3,165. Second is the Cathedral Basilica of Our Lady of Peace with 2,302. Third is the Co-Cathedral of St. Theresa at 1,714.
The 2018 October count may be the lowest on record. From 1982 to 2001, the numbers fluctuated between 56,000 and 60,000. After 2001, the numbers hovered mostly in the 55,000-range, until 2015 when it dropped below 50,000.
The highest year since the 1980s was 2001 when the October count hit 62,590. That October was the month immediately following the 9/11 terrorist attack.
